A Strategic Plan to Disarm Hizbullah
Among Lebanese Shi’ites there is a widespread perception that their community must not return to the era of persecution and oppression that lasted hundreds of years under the Ottoman Turks and continued under the French Mandate and modern Lebanese state (until the founding of the first Shi’ite political movement, Amal, in 1975 followed by Hizbullah […]
Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman Moment
Turkey’s Syria policy didn’t materialize in a vacuum. Rather, it was a reaction to the Arab uprisings that began in January 2011, known as the Arab Spring, which Turkish policymakers interpreted as a providential opportunity. The fall of entrenched dictators (in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen and, eventually, Syria) would, the Turks believed, open the door […]
Effectively Banning the Muslim Brotherhood
A Jordanian immigrant in the US goes to her bank in order to transfer money to a cousin in Amman. But there is a problem. Her cousin is a senior official in the Islamic Action Front, the political party affiliated with the Jordanian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. The US has just designated the Muslim […]
Israel’s New Friend in Europe
On December 15, 2024, Israel announced it would temporarily close its embassy in Dublin, owing to “the extreme anti-Israel policies of the Irish government,” and open an embassy in Chișinău, Moldova. What is most noteworthy in this Israeli move, suspending relations with one small country on the margins of Europe and investing in another, is the […]
Make Hamas Face a Choice
There are no easy answers to the question of what Israel should do in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is demanding a complete Israeli surrender in exchange for releasing the remaining hostages, whom it has bandied about in horrific videos. The only option is to cope intelligently and soberly with a situation that is borderline impossible. […]
A US-Led Multinational Mechanism for Syria
Optimism about Syria abounds. The regime, despite its Islamist orientation, has adopted a generally moderate and pragmatic approach (though there are legitimate concerns about its security forces’ actions in the predominantly Druze area of al-Suwayda). Israel’s decimation of Hizbullah and weakening of Iran – the former Asad regime’s primary pillars of support – created this […]
Erdoğan’s Long Game in Syria
When Bashar al-Asad’s regime abruptly collapsed in December 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan saw more than just a regional upheaval. He saw a long-awaited opportunity. With Iran’s influence waning and Russia distracted by internal instability and foreign entanglements, a rare power vacuum emerged in Syria. Erdoğan moved swiftly. For over a decade, Ankara had […]
Sanctioning One of Lebanon’s Largest Banks
Hizbullah has long treated Lebanon’s financial system as its personal bank vault — laundering funds, moving money through shell companies, and using quasi-banks like Al-Qard al-Hasan, a US-sanctioned entity, to keep its financial empire humming. But on July 15, something remarkable happened: Lebanon finally pushed back. The country’s central bank banned financial institutions from dealing with Al-Qard […]
The Lesson of Russian History
The German military historian Carl von Clausewitz, writing about the Napoleonic Wars, once commented on military aggressions more generally: “The conqueror is always peace-loving; he would much prefer to march into our state calmly.” After the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and covertly invaded the Donets Basin (Donbas) of […]
Nuclear Proliferation Begins in Korea
Seventy-five years ago, an unexpected event on the Korean peninsula changed the world. In the coming years, that history may repeat itself: an increasingly likely development there has the potential to transform the entire international order once again. In June 1950, forces from communist North Korea invaded the non-communist south. The United States dispatched troops […]
America's Latin America Problem
Twenty years of US neglect have created space for adversaries to build permanent footholds in the Western Hemisphere. Iran and other adversaries are quietly building an operational network in America’s backyard, one that sanctions alone cannot dismantle. The Venezuela Nexus Recent testimony from Hugo “Pollo” Carvajal, Venezuela’s former intelligence chief, reveals the depth of Iran-Venezuela […]
Reconciliation Bills and the Defense Budget
Both during his presidential campaign and since taking office, President Donald Trump has repeatedly echoed Ronald Reagan’s famous phrase “peace through strength,” while emphasizing the major emerging long-term threat from the People’s Republic of China. Despite Trump’s pronouncements, however, his fiscal year 2026 budget falls short of the defense spending levels that the Biden administration […]
