The New Syrian Regime’s Dilemma
On September 24, Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara’a addressed the UN General Assembly in New York, where he is still on the UN sanctions list for his leadership of an al-Qa’ida affiliate (though he is likely to be de-listed soon). The transformation of al-Shara’a from wanted terrorist into respected statesman has taken place with remarkable speed. […]
When Erdoğan Shifted Focus to the Kurds in Syria
2015 marked a change in the Syria policy of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He began to walk back his initial goal of toppling the Asad regime and turned towards Syria’s surging Kurdish forces. Specifically, he wanted to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish-controlled enclave along Turkey’s border with Syria that could affect Turkey’s own […]
Turkey in Syria: An Alternative View
Sinan Ciddi has written recently in the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune a multi-part analysis of Turkey in Syria (“Turkey’s Quiet Relationship with ISIS” and previous). His bottom-line argument is that Erdoğan’s Syria policy was driven largely, first, by his desire to spread and eventually lead, political Islam throughout the region, and, second, as a means to that […]
Russia’s Return to Syria
On July 31, Syrian Foreign Minister Asa’ad al-Shaibani met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the same city where deposed President Bashar al-Asad now lives in exile. Shaibani was carrying an unexpected request. According to sources familiar with the meeting, Damascus asked Russia to resume military police patrols along Syria’s southern border with Israel. […]
The Saudi-Qatari Competition for Influence in Syria
With the Syrian state still in its formative stage, lacking a defined political identity, two Gulf monarchies – Qatar and Saudi Arabia – are seeking to dominate Syria. This competition will only intensify as the interim Syrian government of Ahmad al-Shara’a grapples with state-building. Qatar provided a cash infusion on August 6, when its UCC […]
Turkey’s Push for Regime Change in Syria: The Jihadi Highway
Syria’s civil war broke out in March 2011, in reaction to the brutal crackdown by the regime of Bashar al-Asad of popular protests that were part of the wider Arab Spring. In supporting the Syrian rebels, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan initially used the language of humanitarian intervention, claiming to protect civilians from the Asad […]
Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman Moment
Turkey’s Syria policy didn’t materialize in a vacuum. Rather, it was a reaction to the Arab uprisings that began in January 2011, known as the Arab Spring, which Turkish policymakers interpreted as a providential opportunity. The fall of entrenched dictators (in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen and, eventually, Syria) would, the Turks believed, open the door […]
A US-Led Multinational Mechanism for Syria
Optimism about Syria abounds. The regime, despite its Islamist orientation, has adopted a generally moderate and pragmatic approach (though there are legitimate concerns about its security forces’ actions in the predominantly Druze area of al-Suwayda). Israel’s decimation of Hizbullah and weakening of Iran – the former Asad regime’s primary pillars of support – created this […]
Erdoğan’s Long Game in Syria
When Bashar al-Asad’s regime abruptly collapsed in December 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan saw more than just a regional upheaval. He saw a long-awaited opportunity. With Iran’s influence waning and Russia distracted by internal instability and foreign entanglements, a rare power vacuum emerged in Syria. Erdoğan moved swiftly. For over a decade, Ankara had […]
Thoughts from the Safe Room on the New Map of the Middle East
Every modern apartment in Israel comes with a safe room hardened to survive a missile or rocket hit. In 2022 I moved to Jerusalem, bought an apartment, and placed my library in the safe room. Thus, I had plenty of resources to consult in the safe room during the recent Iranian missile attacks. Here are […]
