On January 30, 1933, Adolf Hitler became chancellor of Germany. It was not a Machtergreifung, or seizure of power. Instead, Hitler was installed in office at the behest of a cabal led by Franz von Papen, the head of the Catholic Center Party. Papen believed that he could manipulate the Nazi leader for his own purposes. Told that he had blundered in elevating Hitler to power by a fellow conservative, Papen replied, “You are mistaken. We’ve hired him.”
Ever since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1949, its mainstream conservative political parties have shunned the radical right, erecting “a firewall” against any cooperation with them. No longer. Recently the Alternative for Germany backed two anti-immigration bills in the Bundestag, or federal parliament. Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democratic parliamentarian and candidate for chancellor in the upcoming February 23 federal elections, publicly supported them.
So far, the Christian Democrats hold a slender lead with 25 percent in opinion polls. The Alternative Party for Germany comes in second place at 21 percent. One of its leaders, Bjorn Höcke, has ventilated SS slogans such as “Alles für Deutschland” in public and complained that “we Germans are the only people in the world that have planted a monument of shame in the heart of their capital” by which he means the Holocaust memorial in Berlin.
What will actually occur on election day remains an open question. Merz is obviously eager to try and woo voters on the right. The traditional role of the Christian Democrats and their sister party, the Christian Social Union in Bavaria, has been to capture voters on the right before they turn to extremist parties.
But in the current climate, will the far-right score even better than the polls indicate? Are some far-right voters reluctant to disclose to pollsters how they actually intend to vote? And will the talk among mainstream political elites about officially banning the Alternative for Germany simply redound to its benefit?
Over the past several years, disenchantment with the one million immigrants from the Middle East that entered Germany since 2015 has been mounting. It was Merkel who originally welcomed them during the Syrian civil war, announcing “we’ll get it done.” She was overoptimistic and the mood in Germany has soured since then.
Most recently, after a deranged Afghan man stabbed several pre-school children on January 22 in a park in Aschaffenburg, Merz declared, “On the first day of my tenure as chancellor, I will instruct the interior ministry to impose permanent border controls with all our neighbors and refuse all attempts at illegal entry.” In late January, a non-binding resolution passed in the Bundestag with the aid of the far-right Alternative for Germany party. On January 31, an “Immigration Influx Law” – proposed by the Christian Democrats with Alternative for Germany support – was narrowly defeated.
The Social Democrats saw an opportunity. Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared that the “firewall” has fallen. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that Merz’s move “shamed” the conservative alliance and “damaged democracy as a whole.” Large-scale protests have been taking place in Germany in major cities such as Aachen, Bremen, Cologne, Essen, Frankfurt, and Leipzig. The latest protest took place in Berlin where about 160,000 people gathered in front of the Bundestag before walking to the headquarters of Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). “Shame on you, CDU!” many of the demonstrators chanted.
Merz miscalculated. He was seeking to secure measures to accelerate deportations and to secure Germany’s borders even before he became chancellor. But he was targeted by former chancellor and CDU leader Angela Merkel who had remained aloof from daily politics until now. She issued a statement after the passage of the non-binding resolution declaring that Merz erred in violating his earlier pledge in November not to pass any legislation before the election in tandem with the Alternative for Germany. “I think it was wrong to no longer feel bound,” she said, adding “this pledge and the attitude associated with it were an expression of great national political responsibility, which I fully support.”
Merz will likely become chancellor. But he may not obtain the sweeping victory that he probably would have attained. Instead, the Social Democrats have been reanimated by Merz’s decision to forge a de facto alliance with the far right. And the Alternative for Germany has been further legitimized.
It’s not farfetched to speculate that a scenario similar to that of Austria might ensue in Germany. Despite the initial reluctance of the conservative Austrian People’s Party to form a government with the far-right Freedom Party (led by Herbert Kickl), it now appears that Kickl could become chancellor in a coalition government.
It cannot be precluded that the Alternative for Germany will emerge as the strongest party. As Stefan Lehne of the Carnegie Endowment observes, “Whether, as in Austria, mainstream politicians embrace far-right parties or whether, as in Germany, they embrace their policies, the result is always a weakening of the liberal democracy that has underpinned Europe’s security and prosperity for decades.” Germany is facing a time of troubles.
