Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three years ago was its first step towards reclaiming control over the lands between the Oder and the Don Rivers. Whether by means of coercion or invasion, Moscow’s successful subjugation of Central and Eastern European states would lead to a full-scale resumption of the Cold War.
This can be prevented. First, we must continue to arm Ukraine with the weaponry necessary to maintain its sovereign independence. Doing so would keep our security perimeter at Russia’s border while providing a buffer for Europe’s security. Second, the US military presence in Europe should shift from Germany and Italy to frontline NATO states such as Poland, Romania, and the Baltics.
The Nature of the Russian Threat
Since the 18th century, an expansionist Kremlin has invaded and oppressed non-Russia nations in its near abroad, including Poles, Hungarians, Central Asians and Baltic peoples, among others. From the Romanovs through the USSR, Russia’s leaders invariably unleash indiscriminate, mass-scale violence against military and civilians alike. Once occupying, they labor to destroy these people’s national identities, religions, cultures, and histories. Working through local proxies, and wholly intolerant of dissent, Moscow seeks to dominate all aspects of political, economic, and civic life.
Russia’s methods remain wholly unchanged. All one need do is look at the lands currently or previously occupied by Russian forces in Ukraine’s east: Political killings and torture; destruction of Ukrainian churches; Ukrainian children ripped from their families and sent to be Russified by ethnic Russians; economic desolation; and random murder and raping of civilians. The horror that is the Russian nation remains unrepentant.
The Consequences of Russian Expansion
Once under Moscow’s thumb, what becomes of occupied territories such as Crimea, Belarus, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and Transdniestria? They are all characterized by rampant corruption (often transnational), institutionally organized crime and economic desolation. Moscow views their neighboring states, generally more prosperous and free, as threats to be destabilized, including by cyberattacks, energy coercion, manufactured immigrant crises, disinformation campaigns, economic blackmail, and attempted coups d’etat (Montenegro 2016), and military invasions (Georgia 2008; Ukraine 2014, 2022).
Given all this, President Donald Trump’s first National Security Strategy sensibly declared: “Russia challenge[s] American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity.” Russia President Vladimir Putin has shown no behavior to warrant changing this 2017 evaluation.
The Implications of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Putin’s ambitions to eventually reassert Russian dominance over Central-Eastern Europe were made apparent in his 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference, where his intent to weaken transatlantic ties was made clear. As recently as December 2021 Putin was demanding that NATO abandon its Central-Eastern European partners.
Ukraine is the stepping stone. There is little credibility to Putin’s ability to threaten NATO’s eastern flank without Moscow’s full control of Ukraine. Once attained, Russia will strike into NATO territory.
A Russian incursion could result in disarray among NATO members. Meanwhile, the absence of clear direction or action from Washington would dismember our standing on the world stage, emboldening our adversaries – and Russia’s allies – China, Iran, and North Korea.
Economically, Americans would suffer. Global markets would tumble. European trade with and investment in the US , with over 5.5 million EU-generated jobs in the US, would be at grave risk. Supply chains would be disrupted, leading to essential goods deficiencies and inflation. Industrial machinery imported from Germany and Italy crucial for our domestic manufacturing would well come to a standstill.
And with Europe either occupied or kowtowing to the Kremlin in exchange for false security and cheap energy, Russia could capably threaten freedom of the seas and major maritime chokepoints, moving us closer to a contested Atlantic.
Prevention through Containment
We can continue to reinvigorate America’s military industrial base by supplying Europe’s most effective fighting force – the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Train them for our collective defense. The same goes for NATO allies, Poland, Romania, and the Balkan states. For the long-term, move US armed forces from Germany and Italy to where they are most needed – frontline NATO members.
As to the costs of continued arms supply and US force relocation, Trump’s team should proceed with negotiating a rare metals-for-weapons agreement with Kyiv to the benefit of our world-class manufacturing sector. More funds for Kyiv’s arsenal can be found if international legal proceedings allow the European central banks to release over $300 billion in frozen Russian foreign assets.
Putin wants to drop a dark new curtain across Europe. The consequences for America, militarily and economically, at home and abroad, will be costly and dire. We must respond forcefully to contain this threat now.
