With Renewed Crisis in the Middle East, Who is Watching the Indo-Pacific?

by April 2025
USS Carl Vinson in South Korea, March 2025. Photo credit: Lee Young Ho/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect.

In October 2023, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels began attacking civilian and military shipping in the Red Sea between the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The impact on global trade has cost consumers world-wide billions of dollars, as ships avoid the Red Sea and transit instead around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. In December 2023, I made the following recommendation in these pages in an article entitled “Next Steps in the Red Sea: Offense, Not Just Defense”: 

US Navy destroyers have mitigated some of the Houthi attacks by downing incoming missiles or attack drones. The performance of our ships and sailors has been commendable, but simply knocking down incoming attacks will not solve the crisis. More decisive action is required to go after the source of the problem…Definitive action on Houthi launch sites is unavoidable. Let’s not delay the inevitable.

Renewed Crisis

The Trump administration has wasted no time in taking decisive action. On March 17, 2025, numerous strike operations on Houthi infrastructure and leadership began and will continue until the Houthis cease and desist. Furthermore, President Trump has linked accountability for Houthi actions to their sponsors in Iran. Iran has responded by threatening the Island of Diego Garcia, where US and UK forces maintain a logistics, repair, and staging base. 

Neither the United States nor the Houthis have shown any signs of backing down. Accordingly, the United States has moved the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson into the Middle East, to supplement USS Harry S. Truman, for a total of two carrier strike groups on station in the region. USS Carl Vinson is homeported in the Pacific and it marks the sixth US carrier strike group dispatched to the region since the attack by Hamas on Israel in October 2023.  

This raises an additional set of challenges for the United States. The Trump Administration has clearly articulated that China is the pacing threat for the United States. In late 2024, with an impending threat by Iran against Israel, the United States sent two Pacific-based carriersUSS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East. With the American carriers gone, the Chinese took the opportunity to put their three carriers to sea for the very first time.  

ADM James Foggo (USN retired), VADM Dozer Dwyer, USN, RDML Giancarlo Ciappina, Italian Navy, Captain Jean-Olivier Grall, French Navy and CDR Vincent Owen, Royal Navy.

The Allies Step Up

Who is minding the Pacific when the United States surges carrier presence to the Middle East? USS Nimitz will fill in as USS Carl Vinson departs the Pacific, but what happens if there is a crisis and we need even more carrier presence in the Middle East?  

There is some good news—our allies have risen to the occasion and have provided a near constant carrier presence in the Pacific for the past year. On March 18, 2025, during the Global Carrier Presence Symposium at the Center for Maritime Strategy in Washington, the Italian Strike Group Commander, Rear-Admiral Giancarlo Ciappina, made the following statement during his presentation: 

Italian, French and British Navies are committed to maintain free international waters, based on the rule of law, from the Euro-Atlantic up to the Indo-Pacific area. To this end, we will coordinate and sequence the Cavour, Charles de Gaulle and Prince of Wales Carrier Strike Group Deployments in 2024 and 2025.

It all started with the deployment of the United Kingdom’s brand-new carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth and the 21st Century Strike Group that deployed from April to December 2021. That strike group consisted of nine ships, 15 fighter aircraft including the F-35 (five from the Royal Air Force and 10 from the US Marine Corps), 11 helicopters and 3,000 personnel to security in the Indo-Pacific. Allied contributions included a destroyer from the US Navy and a frigate from the Royal Dutch Navy. 

The next to deploy, from June 1 to October 30, 2024, was the Italian aircraft carrier ITS Cavour and her strike group. It traveled through the Suez Canal and into the Red Sea (twice during the Houthi threat window) and proceeded to the Pacific for a dynamic series of exercises and operations. ITS Cavour embarked both naval and air force variants of Italy’s newly purchased American-made F-35 aircraft. It deployed with its European multi-purpose class frigate, ITS Alpino, and the new multi-purpose ship, ITS Montecuccoli. This strike group joined US-led exercises including Pacific Rim 2024—the largest annual exercise coordinated by the US commander of the Indo-Pacific area, and Exercise Pitch Black 2024 – coordinated by the Royal Australian Air Force with 20 participating nations. Likewise, ITS Cavour exercised with the Indian Navy Carrier Strike Group and two US Navy carrier strike groups. The Italians sent a message of allied solidarity that was loud and clear to potential spoilers in the region.  

As ITS Cavour departed, the French Carrier Strike Group Charles de Gaulle arrived in the Pacific. ITS Cavour is a conventionally-powered aircraft carrier, but FS Charles de Gaulle is nuclear-powered. I described the importance of FS Charles de Gaulle’s participation in a recent US-coordinated Mediterranean exercise as follows:  

This maritime exercise offered a “first-ever.” France transferred authority for the operations of its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and its strike group to NATO. That means the 10 percent of the French Navy present on that ship and its associated support elements were working under a NATO flag.

The French name for the FS Charles de Gaulle’s deployment to the Western Pacific was Clemenceau 25. In December 2024, this carrier strike group departed Toulon accompanied by an oiler, a nuclear-powered submarine, frigate and destroyer escorts, and marine patrol reconnaissance aircraft, with a planned return in April 2025. The purpose of Clemenceau 25 is to demonstrate the French carrier strike group’s ability to prevent conflict, protect their interests, intervene when necessary, gain knowledge throughout the journey, conduct assessments of their own and the adversary’s warfighting capabilities, and contribute to nuclear deterrence. 

France has significant interests in French Polynesia and New Caledonia, but moreover, this deployment sent a message that like-minded allies are not reluctant to stand up against untoward or unwanted aggression from rising hegemonic powers in the Pacific. This message of solidarity with allies and partners in the region is significant. 

HMS Prince of Wales will be the next to deploy to the Pacific theater from April – December 2025. Other NATO partners will accompany the UK strike group, like ITS Cavour with its American-built F-35s.  

With all that is happening in the Middle East, it is important that our allies continue to assist with burden-sharing in the Indo-Pacific. Until America rejuvenates its maritime industrial base, there are just not enough ships available to counter all the threats we currently face. Thank you to our allies and partners. Keep up the good work!

James Foggo
Admiral James G. Foggo, US Navy (ret.) is the Dean of the Center for Maritime Strategy and a member of the board of directors of the JST. He is the former commander of US Naval Forces Europe and Africa, and Allied Joint Force Command, Naples. He commanded NATO joint exercises (Baltic Operations) in 2015 and 2016 as well as Exercise Trident Juncture in 2018.
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