Since the US presidential election, friends and supporters have asked us at Razom for Ukraine how we feel about the future of Ukraine. Razom for Ukraine is an American aid and advocacy organization that has delivered more than $100 million in humanitarian assistance since 2022. Razom employs dozens of staff in Ukraine currently on the receiving end of Russian bombardment. We know what’s at stake.
In short, our optimism about Ukraine’s future hasn’t changed. Ukraine will prevail in this war.
For nearly three years, Ukrainians have fought and succeeded — they have liberated more than 50 percent of Russian-occupied territory, incapacitated the Russian navy in the Black Sea and returned grain exports to near pre-war levels, and captured Russian territory in Kursk as leverage. Ukraine has made progress on its reform agenda despite the war: corruption has decreased, minority populations are included more than ever, a novel start-up sector has blossomed, and the country is galvanized by a shared sense of national purpose. Ukrainians do all of this while holding a front line that spans 600 miles.
Pessimism about a Trump II policy towards Ukraine stems from campaign statements like this from Vice President-elect JD Vance, “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” But such statements should be balanced against encouraging factors, especially the record of his first term and lessons he might have learned from the mistakes of his predecessor. President-elect Trump witnessed how America’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan cratered President Biden’s approval ratings. Biden never recovered after the fiasco in Afghanistan. A defeat in Ukraine would make Trump appear weak at the outset of his presidency and undermine his ability to manage threats from Iran to China.
His first term offers several important policy achievements to build on. Under his leadership, the White House reversed President Obama’s policy and finally sent Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. Javelins would later prove vital in defending Kyiv during the early days of Russia’s full-scale assault in 2022. Trump’s administration also continued sanctions placed on Russia after Moscow illegally annexed Crimea.
Furthermore, Trump’s policy instincts could yield several important wins for Ukraine. First, his stated interest in a just peace is echoed by many war-weary Ukrainians. Second, Ukraine must be rebuilt and the White House can make Russia pay for it. The US and its allies sit on nearly $300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets which can relieve the American taxpayer of some of the burden of supporting Ukraine. This is a form of coercive burden-sharing that should have an instinctive appeal to the hard-nosed businessman in Trump, not to mention voters who want to reduce American expenditures abroad.
Third, Trump is right that America’s European allies must do more. NATO members’ commitment to spend at least 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense is insufficient. Calls for higher military budgets are a matter of basic security and Poland has shown the way, allocating 4.7 percent of its GDP to defense in 2025. Fourth, European states must revitalize their defense industrial capacity now. Their commitments to their neighbors and their allies are only as good as the ammunition and weapon systems they can produce. It’s hard to fathom that Europe has only one production line of multiple launch rocket systems, a staple of any modern war, almost three years after Russia invaded Ukraine. Fifth, many of the national security leaders that Trump plans to nominate have a well documented record of criticizing Putin’s aggression and abuses.
Donald Trump assumes office January 20 with an electoral mandate that could produce generational change. Ukraine’s many backers should view it as an opportunity for honesty and dialogue. Where President-elect Trump offers constructive ideas, they should champion them. Where his ideas would harm Ukraine’s statehood, they should criticize them. If Ukraine is to emerge from Russia’s war able to realize the future that its 40 million people deserve, that future cannot be contingent on the outcome of an election a continent away.
Above all, President Trump’s victory is an opportunity to showcase a Ukrainian quality that Trump’s inner circle values most: toughness. Ukraine’s defenders continue to dig in, despite the influx of North Korean soldiers and Iranian drones on Russia’s side. Along the front, Ukrainians are outmanned and outgunned but they remain unbowed. Ukraine’s first responders continue providing life-saving aid, often at grave personal risk. Ukraine’s civilians continue to step up, with neighbor helping neighbor stave off hunger, cold, and darkness as the winter approaches and Russia bombs schools and hospitals.
Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, gave us one of the most iconic images of modern American politics. The once and future President just survived an assassination attempt. He stands up against the backdrop of the American flag, fist in the air, blood on his face, and yells, “fight, fight fight.” So long as Russia seeks Ukraine’s annihilation, nobody needs to teach Ukrainians the words to this chant.
Ukraine’s future rests on the courage of its defenders at home and the solidarity of its many global supporters. Trump’s election is a clarion call for Ukraine’s supporters to get to work and get involved.
