The War on Soft Power
In the first Trump administration, then director of the Office of Management and Budget Mick Mulvaney said “There’s no question this is a hard-power budget. It is not a soft-power budget. . . [We want] to send a message to our allies and our potential adversaries that this is a strong-power administration. So you have […]
Turkey’s Quiet Relationship with ISIS
On June 29, 2014, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State in al-Sham (ISIS), was recorded on video speaking at the al-Nuri Mosque in Mosul, Iraq. (“Al-Sham” is the traditional Arabic name for the Levant.) He declared himself to be the caliph or divinely inspired absolute ruler of an Islamic state. ISIS had risen […]
Disarming Hizbullah in Lebanon
The Lebanese government has taken the unprecedented political step of forming a committee to create a plan for disarming the militia groups in the country, starting with “the low hanging fruit” of collecting weapons from Palestinian armed groups in a Palestinian camp in Beirut. But Israeli assessments indicate the new Lebanese government and its army leadership […]
Disarming Hizbullah: Much Talk, Little Action
The new Lebanese president, General Joseph Aoun, says in closed-door meetings that he has no intention whatsoever of sending his military to clash with Hizbullah. He insists that implementing the Lebanese government’s agreement to disarm Hizbullah must be preceded by dialogue and solid understandings. Aoun, as military chief before becoming president in January, instructed his […]
Turkey’s Push for Regime Change in Syria: The Jihadi Highway
Syria’s civil war broke out in March 2011, in reaction to the brutal crackdown by the regime of Bashar al-Asad of popular protests that were part of the wider Arab Spring. In supporting the Syrian rebels, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan initially used the language of humanitarian intervention, claiming to protect civilians from the Asad […]
A Strategic Plan to Disarm Hizbullah
Among Lebanese Shi’ites there is a widespread perception that their community must not return to the era of persecution and oppression that lasted hundreds of years under the Ottoman Turks and continued under the French Mandate and modern Lebanese state (until the founding of the first Shi’ite political movement, Amal, in 1975 followed by Hizbullah […]
Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman Moment
Turkey’s Syria policy didn’t materialize in a vacuum. Rather, it was a reaction to the Arab uprisings that began in January 2011, known as the Arab Spring, which Turkish policymakers interpreted as a providential opportunity. The fall of entrenched dictators (in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen and, eventually, Syria) would, the Turks believed, open the door […]
Effectively Banning the Muslim Brotherhood
A Jordanian immigrant in the US goes to her bank in order to transfer money to a cousin in Amman. But there is a problem. Her cousin is a senior official in the Islamic Action Front, the political party affiliated with the Jordanian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. The US has just designated the Muslim […]
Israel’s New Friend in Europe
On December 15, 2024, Israel announced it would temporarily close its embassy in Dublin, owing to “the extreme anti-Israel policies of the Irish government,” and open an embassy in Chișinău, Moldova. What is most noteworthy in this Israeli move, suspending relations with one small country on the margins of Europe and investing in another, is the […]
Make Hamas Face a Choice
There are no easy answers to the question of what Israel should do in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is demanding a complete Israeli surrender in exchange for releasing the remaining hostages, whom it has bandied about in horrific videos. The only option is to cope intelligently and soberly with a situation that is borderline impossible. […]
A US-Led Multinational Mechanism for Syria
Optimism about Syria abounds. The regime, despite its Islamist orientation, has adopted a generally moderate and pragmatic approach (though there are legitimate concerns about its security forces’ actions in the predominantly Druze area of al-Suwayda). Israel’s decimation of Hizbullah and weakening of Iran – the former Asad regime’s primary pillars of support – created this […]
Erdoğan’s Long Game in Syria
When Bashar al-Asad’s regime abruptly collapsed in December 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan saw more than just a regional upheaval. He saw a long-awaited opportunity. With Iran’s influence waning and Russia distracted by internal instability and foreign entanglements, a rare power vacuum emerged in Syria. Erdoğan moved swiftly. For over a decade, Ankara had […]
