Israel-Egypt peace was carefully constructed in the 1979 treaty and has weathered numerous regional storms: the 1982 Lebanon War, two Palestinian intifadas, the upheaval of the 2011 Arab Spring, and even sixteen months of conflict in Gaza. Throughout, Israel and Egypt have sustained generally productive military and economic cooperation (despite persistent anti-Israeli sentiment in the Egyptian public and antagonistic media coverage in the Egyptian press.)
Today, however, the prospect of resettling Gaza’s Palestinians in Egypt, part of President Trump’s vision for Gaza, has created new tensions between Israel and Egypt that even raise the specter of military confrontation for the first time in decades.
The Specter of Conflict Returns
Recent weeks have witnessed growing anxiety in both nations regarding the possibility of military confrontation, the first in half a century of relative calm. In Israel, an often jittery media has stoked concerns with Egypt, for instance, showing Egyptian military movements in Sinai, accompanied by a statement from Egypt’s president suggesting that Egypt could repeat its past military success against Israel. As it turned out, the “Sinai” footage was later identified as a compilation of Egyptian military operations from various locations—not exclusively Sinai—and the presidential statement was not recent. But Israeli television, radio, and print continued questioning whether Cairo was preparing for conflict.
The situation intensified when Israel’s new ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, claimed that Egypt was “in serious violation of the Camp David Accords” and stated that Israel “will take care of that later.” The IDF ultimately issued a statement suggesting that a foreign entity might be deliberately attempting to undermine Israeli-Egyptian relations.
Concurrently, Egyptian anxieties were inflamed when an Israeli website published an AI-generated scenario depicting an attack that destroyed Egypt’s Aswan Dam. In apparent retaliation, an Egyptian content creator released another AI-generated video showing the destruction of what was characterized as Israel’s nuclear installations. Beyond media speculation and simulated conflicts in virtual reality, these incidents raise questions about underlying factors driving these provocations.
A History of Pragmatic Cooperation
For decades, Israel and Egypt have maintained a functional security relationship. When Egypt needed to deploy additional military personnel and equipment to the Sinai Peninsula, beyond the limits prescribed by the 1979 peace treaty, in order to combat Islamic extremists, weapons traffickers, and narcotics dealers, successive Israeli governments approved these deployments, recognizing shared security objectives. In 2018, the Israeli air force participated in airstrikes against ISIS targets in Sinai. When reports emerged in 2019 that Prime Minister Netanyahu had approved Germany’s sale of a third submarine to Egypt without consulting or notifying top defense officials, Israeli media outrage centered on allegations of Israeli government corruption rather than security concerns with Egyptian military capabilities.
Bilateral relations have never warmed to true normalization. But there has been a tacit understanding that Egypt has no interest in renewed hostilities. Egypt’s 1973 surprise attack was fundamentally about reclaiming sovereignty over the Sinai Peninsula—an objective long since achieved.
Recently, Major General Ahmad Mahmoud Safi al-Din, a prominent Egyptian military commander, told Saudi news channel Al-Hadath that Egypt’s military expenditures and modernization efforts were intended to “preserve peace and stability in the region.” Given Egypt’s economic challenges and ongoing instability along its borders with Sudan and Libya, initiating military conflict with Israel would appear to be counterproductive to Cairo’s interests.
Assessing the Risk of Escalation
Could this status quo be destabilized by the repercussions of the Gaza conflict and President Trump’s Gaza plan?
President Sisi abruptly postponed his scheduled visit to the United States following Trump’s announcement of the Gaza plan. The proposal envisions permanently resettling Gaza’s Palestinians in Egypt and Jordan while transforming Gaza into a luxury tourist destination. This concept of relocating Palestinians to Sinai has particular resonance in Egyptian domestic politics, as the Muslim Brotherhood has for years weaponized such scenarios in propaganda campaigns designed to undermine the government’s legitimacy and sovereignty Regime supporters often accused the Muslim Brotherhood of promoting a similar plan.
Egypt presented its own reconstruction plan for Gaza — a proposal that maintained Palestinian presence while addressing Israeli security concerns — only to have the White House dismiss it. This dismissive approach seems to Egyptians to depart from decades of US policy that positioned Egypt as America’s indispensable Arab partner. Where previous administrations carefully balanced Israeli and Egyptian interests, the current administration’s approach risks pushing Cairo away from Washington’s sphere of influence and potentially toward Moscow and Beijing, both eagerly awaiting opportunities to expand their regional footprint. For Egypt, already navigating complex economic and security challenges, American support for what it views as an intolerable threat may necessitate a fundamental reconsideration of its strategic alignments.
A Potential Regional Alignment
These developments signal a significant realignment: the United States and Israel positioning themselves on one side, with Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab nations increasingly unified in opposition. The probability of military conflict remains low — owing both to Egypt’s internal calculations and the likely reluctance of its Arab allies in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Morocco, and elsewhere to support such action. But mounting tensions should not be dismissed.
Egypt has concerns with the resumption of Israeli military operations in Gaza and the potential implementation of a transfer plan for Palestinians. Cairo believes that such developments would destabilize an already fragile domestic situation and potentially reignite unrest in Sinai, where Egyptian security forces have only recently gained the upper hand against ISIS-affiliated militants. And it will probably also increase the popularity of Hamas and its Muslim Brotherhood affiliates in Egypt. These scenarios pose direct threats to Egypt’s national security and, by extension, to the peaceful border Israel has enjoyed with its southern neighbor for more than four decades.
A Path Forward
De-escalation requires a comprehensive approach to Gaza’s future, one that assigns Egypt a leadership role commensurate with its control of Gaza’s only international border crossing. Renewed military-to-military dialogue between Israeli and Egyptian forces, coupled with enhanced monitoring mechanisms for developments in the Sinai Peninsula, would help prevent misunderstandings and violations of existing agreements.
The peace between Israel and Egypt has never been warm, but it has proven durable through numerous regional crises. At least two generations of Israelis cannot envisage any other scenario, the wars of the past being a distant memory. Preserving this critical pillar of regional stability will require careful diplomacy, mutual respect for core security interests, and a focus on long-term security for all parties involved.
