NATO doesn’t face the threat of an attack from Russia. It’s already being attacked. Stymied in Ukraine, where Russian troops have failed to seize fresh territory over the past year, President Vladimir Putin is upping the pressure on Europe by flying drones through NATO member states to probe the readiness of America and its allies to respond.
Consider some of the recent Russian incursions. On May 28, a Russian drone struck a ten-story apartment building in the Romanian city of Galaţi, injuring a woman and a child. This was not an isolated incident. In 2026 alone, Moscow’s drones have entered Romanian airspace no less than 40 time. What’s more, Russian drones have also landed in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, leading to the collapse of the coalition government in Riga after it responded impotently to two Russian drone incursions.
As I attended the annual Lennart Meri Conference in Estonia in May, I was bowled over by the depth of knowledge about Russian history and ambitions that exists in the region. The contrast with the United States, where Russian studies is a thing of the past, was striking. Throughout the conference, Europe’s leading politicians and thinkers debated how to counter Russia most effectively and whether Europe has stepped up enough. There were panels on China, intelligence and Ukraine. The mood was dramatically different from what I experienced in Ukraine six months earlier. Ukraine was now on a roll and the consensus of the conference was that it can hold out indefinitely against Russia. The conference itself was titled “Fortune Favours the Brave.”
During the conference, the signs of Russian bullying could hardly have been more acute. Finland scrambled fighter jets after a Russian drone looked as though it might arc into Helsinki region. Fortunately, the drone didn’t appear. Only after ordering its citizens in the Uusimaa region indoors and closing the Helsinki airport for nearly three hours did the government sound the all-clear signal.
Russia’s hybrid tactics are not new. Dozens of reports have detailed Moscow’s dirty deeds in Europe, from manipulating elections to shooting opposition leaders in broad daylight. What’s new is that the menace from Moscow can be detected in NATO airspace with regularity–in the form of Shaheed drones that Putin and has refined during its war of choice in Ukraine. 80 percent of the drones used in the last major strike in Kyiv were made in Iran.
Now that Kyiv’s long-range drones and missiles are regularly striking Russia’s oil and gas facilities, NATO member states should expect more drones. Through electronic warfare, Moscow has a pattern of pulling Kyiv’s drones off-course, into NATO countries–and then blaming Kyiv. When Kyiv launches long-range drones at Russia’s expansive oil and gas storage facilities in Ust-Luga, the arc can easily be diverted into Latvia and Estonia, all courtesy of Russia’s electronic war specialists. Expect to see more and more of these instances.
The Baltic states in particular are cognizant of the threat that Moscow poses but they lack sufficient sophisticated air defense systems and fighter jets. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s Baltic Air Policing mission provides constant watch over the Baltic states– through rotational forces based in Lithuania and Estonia–that are ready to be launched by NATO’s Combined Air Operations Center. The Air Forces of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania support the mission through air command and control infrastructure and personnel while other NATO member provide the jets and pilots. Much as during the cold war, Russian aircraft often fly near NATO airspace without turning on transponders, communicating with Air Traffic Control or filing a flight plan, so fighter aircraft assigned to NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission often go up to identify Russia’s planes. Given Russian behavior, it may be wondered whether Moscow believes that the cold war ever ended in the first place.
Unfortunately, NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission isn’t sufficient to address the growing threat. But the allies are stepping up in more than a merely ceremonial fashion. Germany has vowed to up its spending on national security, but Tallinn and Riga already devote 5 percent of their GDPs to defense. At the same time, a joint Estonia-Ukrainian company has successfully tested drone interceptors in Ukraine.
Estonia doesn’t manufacture air defense systems, but it does build sensors used in the systems as well as drones and unmanned systems.
The Baltic states face the same problem that Washington, our Middle Eastern allies, and Taiwan confront – not enough Patriot interceptors are being built and the war in Iran has drained America’s stockpiles. The Baltic states also lack deep strike capabilities and have asked Washington for help. The Trump administration should seek to ensure that they are able to attain this capability.
Kyiv will soon mitigate Russia’s growing drone threat to NATO airspace by changing its rules on defense exports and selling its know-how to its neighbors. Even before the full-scale war in 2022, a Ukrainian defense commission close to the presidential administration made arbitrary decisions about defense exports.
That all changes this summer. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is considering new rules to make the defense export process transparent and fast. Right now, Ukraine does not sell any finished defense products abroad. Once the Ukrainian president signs off on the changes, NATO’s eastern flank should rest easier — all while continuing to boost their defense budgets and stepping up domestic defense manufacturing.
The Baltic States have long been among the most outspoken and countries to warn about the grave threat Moscow poses to the democratic world. After spending a week in Helsinki, Narva, and Tallinn, I came away with the sense that Ukraine’s decision to relax its regulations on inexpensive drones and missiles cannot arrive soon enough. Fortune does indeed favor the brave and the Baltics.
