Following the collapse of the Asad regime in December, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) moved to take over the highest peak of Mount Hermon across its border with Syria. Israel will remain there indefinitely, stated Minister of Defense Israel Katz recently. The IDF has long-term plans for Syria, and the expectation is that the current turmoil will be prolonged.
This move comes at a time of significant regional upheaval, as Syria’s new leadership under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) commander Ahmad al-Shara’a struggles to maintain control over a fractured country. Various actors including Iran, ISIS, Turkey, and US-backed Kurdish forces continue to vie for influence and territory.
For years, Israel was uncomfortable with Asad’s close cooperation with the Iranians but tolerated it for the sake of border stability. According to a recent exposé by Ronen Bergman, its security services tried to distance Asad from the Iranians almost until his last day (to no avail). The Israeli groupthink view was that the familiar evil of Asad was better than the unfamiliar one of the jihadist rebels. However, it now seems to many in Israel that the benefits of Asad’s fall and resulting decrease in Iranian influence in Syria and Lebanon outweigh the benefits of a stable Syrian border. Nevertheless, the current instability presents its own challenges.
Skeptical in Jerusalem
Immediately after the fall of Asad’s regime in December, the new rulers in Damascus quickly reassured Israel and its partners that they were interested in peace. The official Israeli reaction to these statements was skeptical: “We will not allow hostile forces to establish themselves in the security zone in southern Syria… we will act against any threat,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said in January 2025.
Israel is reluctant to overlook the recent jihadi pasts of Ahmad al-Shara’a and his followers. It is too early to tell whether the HTS leader is projecting a moderate posture temporarily in order to achieve international acceptance and the removal of international sanctions on Syria. But there is more to Israeli concerns than just past al-Qa’ida affiliations. The key question is whether the self-appointed president of Syria will be able to achieve stability in a fragmented, war-torn country and prevent malign actors, such as ISIS and Iran-affiliated groups, from seizing territories and inflicting harm on Israel.
Reminders from Idlib
Ahmad al-Shara’a ruled the rebel province of Idlib in northwest Syria between 2017-2024. Examining his successes and failures in Idlib can help us better understand the dynamics in Syria today.
In Idlib province, HTS systematically dismantled local government councils, replacing them with the centralized Syrian Salvation Government. This move aimed at consolidating HTS control but led to significant local grievances. HTS then created the GSS – General Security System – to manage local unrest. Its harsh tactics included arbitrary arrests, torture, and extrajudicial killings. The organization enforced strict Islamic laws, including public executions and other medieval forms of punishment based on their interpretation of Shari’a law. These measures, along with poor economic performance, brought widespread protests in early 2024. The protests were eventually quelled with a mixture of negotiations and calibrated violence. The Salvation government of HTS was also accused of corruption and bribery. Syrians who lived in this densely populated and volatile area complained of chaos and lack of governance.
Governing Idlib with its population of 3 million was challenging. But running post civil war Syria will be much harder, especially with many malign actors, such as Iran and ISIS, trying to revive and disrupt.
ISIS, Iran, Poverty and Chaos
Since al-Shara’a’s victorious march to Damascus, he has made it clear that he is willing to fight against both Iranian influence and ISIS revival. These battles, however, have only just begun. In at least one instance, US intelligence helped HTS thwart an ISIS plot to attack a religious shrine near Damascus. Iran and its militias have suffered a significant setback after the fall of Assad’s regime, but they haven’t abandoned the idea of interfering in Syria.
The situation in Syria today is far from stable. The HTS only controls approximately 35-40 percent Syrian territory – slightly more than Bashar Assad did in recent years. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces still control the northeast – approximately a third of Syrian territory – despite threats from Turkey and demand for the enclave’s demilitarization. Some area along the northern border with Turkey are currently controlled by pro-Turkish militias. Southern rebels reign in large swathes of southern Syria, while ISIS is currently resurging in some parts of the Syrian desert.
A Potential American Game-Changer
In the eyes of Syria’s new rulers, the northeast, controlled by the Kurds with US backing, is desperately needed for its oil and gas resources. Turkey also covets the region. Meanwhile, the Kurds secure huge prison camps established for ISIS fighters and their families. Al-Hol and other locations are breeding grounds for terrorism. Thus if the US were to withdraw from the northeast and the Kurds flee, thousands of ISIS fighters might roam free around the country. Some might choose to reactivate their jihadi activities near Israeli borders.
The Danger of Becoming a Sitting Duck
The new Syrian regime seems too busy with its own survival to fight for an Israeli withdrawal from the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. However, Israel’s presence inside Syria poses a significant challenge: during the last month, Israeli troops were already attacked by a group called the Islamic Resistance in Syria, a pro-Iranian militia composed mostly of Sunnis. So while Israeli forces were dispatched to Syrian Hermon to protect Israeli security, they are also becoming a target of local jihadi and pro-Iranian groups.
It’s too early to judge what will become of Syria. Turkish influence will grow. It’s unclear whether Saudi Arabia and UAE will be able to leverage their potential influence to help stabilize the new regime. Today Israel is on guard, ready to protect its borders from any menace. This posture is unlikely to change anytime soon.
