The relief that swept across Israel this past week was profound. Twenty living hostages returned home from Gaza captivity. Families who had braced themselves for permanent loss suddenly found themselves whole again. For a few days, the streets filled with tears of joy. Mothers embraced sons they thought they’d never see again. In a country worn down by war, loss, and bitter internal divisions, it was a rare, tender moment when everyone could simply be happy and united by joy.
Throughout two years of war, polls of Israelis consistently showed 75-80 percent supporting an end to hostilities in exchange for the hostages. Without getting the hostages back, the country could not heal from the wounds of October 7th. Now national recovery, physical, emotional and economic, has begun. But Israel is exhausted by the longest war in its history. Hard questions remain: How fragile is this ceasefire? Who will govern Gaza and ensure it doesn’t become a launching pad for violence again? And how does the return of the hostages affect Israeli politics?
A Political Boost for Netanyahu
The ceasefire in Gaza led to significant shifts in the Israeli political landscape. In the immediate aftermath, Likud, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, experienced a dramatic rise in the polls, reaching 34 parliamentary seats (out of a total 120) in one poll, a remarkable growth compared to two years ago when the party managed only 19 seats following the October 7 failure.
The four-year term of the current coalition ends in October 2026; unless Netanyahu decides to opt to dissolve his governing coalition earlier and go to elections, the campaign would start in about six months, next spring. However, despite this surge in popularity, there is no certainty Netanyahu will opt for early elections. The current government structure affords him considerable freedom, for instance, to slow the pace of the criminal cases against him. Netanyahu may also want to put further distance from the traumatic events of October 2023 and work with the Trump administration on further foreign policy triumphs (e.g., normalization steps with Saudi Arabia).
At the same time, waiting for more good news before facing the electorate holds risks. The government will soon be forced to promote an unpopular bill in the Knesset that would extend the exemptions from military service for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox Jewish) men. Passing this bill (a key to keeping the current coalition government together) would erode popular support. Israel lost 918 soldiers in the war thus far, and there is little tolerance for extending the draft exemptions for haredim, who compose about 15 percent of Israel’s population.
Thus, while the ceasefire temporarily bolstered Netanyahu and Likud’s standing, the longer-term political outlook remains highly uncertain. For now it seems that the Prime Minister will not be interested in moving up the election calendar.
The Unclear Situation in Gaza
The current situation in Gaza is precarious. The IDF withdrew to pre-agreed lines separating Israeli forces from Gaza’s main civilian areas while maintaining a security perimeter. The intent was to create space for humanitarian aid and allow governance structures to emerge.
But Hamas has wasted no time in restoring its control over the Gazan population. Reports from Gaza show Hamas operatives executing political rivals with little international reaction. In the relief that the war has ended, few seem concerned that Hamas is eliminating anyone who might challenge its control. It’s a grim reminder that without a credible alternative, Hamas remains the de facto power in Gaza.
Gaza itself lies in ruins. Its population is devastated, with hundreds of thousands displaced and living in tents amid the rubble of their former homes. Hamas, armed gangs and tribes possess enormous amounts of arms. Recent polls show Hamas’s popularity sharply declining among Gazans—but this trend will only continue if a strong, credible, and responsible alternative emerges to take its place.
One of the most critical unanswered questions is who will actually take Hamas’s weapons away. Point 6 of Trump’s plan states: “Once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty. Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries.”
But who will enforce this? And what happens to Gaza’s tunnel network, the underground labyrinth that has been Hamas’s strategic lifeline?Israel made progress destroying tunnels during the war, but with the IDF now withdrawn, the tunnels and whatever weapons they house remain, and could serve as safe havens for Hamas’s rebuilding.
The Trump plan indicates disarmament will occur in phase two, but details are vague. Will international forces handle it? The Palestinian Authority security forces? Egypt? And if Hamas refuses or delays, what can Israel do without collapsing the ceasefire?
Defense Minister Israel Katz has made clear that Israel must retain the option to act unilaterally if Hamas breaks its commitments. But exercising that option could shatter the ceasefire entirely. It’s a delicate balance with little margin for error. It is also unclear whether Israel will have the mandate to do that, especially with international forces that will be deployed in Gaza at some point in the future. A clear deconfliction mechanism should be created to address likely violations.
Between Total Victory and Total Peace
The hostages’ return gave Israel a precious, rare moment of unity. It didn’t last. The deep divisions that have fractured the country over recent years remain, simmering beneath the surface. Many Israelis demand accountability from their government for the fiasco of October 7. For the last two years the Prime Minister postponed the investigation committee that is stipulated by law, till “the end of the war”.
Israel has relief, but not resolution. The hostages, living and dead, are coming home, but fundamental questions – who governs Gaza and who disarms Hamas – remain unanswered. Netanyahu’s government is currently trying to have it both ways: celebrating a diplomatic victory while keeping the door open to renewed fighting.
The truth is that a wide range of possible futures lies between these two extremes of full-out war or total peace. Israel has red lines, insisting on Hamas disarmament, ensuring that international actors don’t undermine Israel’s security by allowing Hamas to recover. Also critical to the Trump plan’s implementation is establishing clear deconfliction mechanisms enabling rapid communication between Israel and other ground actors to prevent accidental escalation. The ceasefire bought time, but time alone doesn’t build peace.
The hostages’ return was a moment of grace. Now Israel will need to work closely with allies and partners in the US, the Arab world, and Palestinian society. Going to war is always far easier than ensuring peace will last.
