Today, for the first time in a century, the Donald Trump administration possesses a tangible opportunity not merely to minimize the Russian threat, influence, or competition, but to oversee a completely managed disintegration of Russia. This would strip Moscow of its aggressive agency and global prospects, if not permanently, then for a very long time to come. This opening is driven by a convergence of internal and external factors that have never previously aligned at a single moment in history.
While before World War II such an action was neither vital nor particularly interesting to Americans, after World War II it became practically impossible – given the sheer scale of the Red Army and the USSR’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. Even following the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a universal realization that completely dismantling Russia was unfeasible, and the justifications for launching measures of such magnitude simply did not exist.
Conversely, today, for the first time in history, the American administration possesses: 1) sufficient justification for such action; 2) genuine political opportunity and backing; 3) an effective toolkit; 4) a committed ally prepared to act and fight to the end; and 5) numerous international actors highly interested in this scenario.
Let us briefly examine these factors:
Justifications
Today, it has become undeniable to the global community that the Russian Federation is an aggressor state and a chronic violator of international law. Without a declaration of war, and in blatant violation of all conceivable norms of international law and the UN Charter, it invaded Ukraine. This follows its 2008 invasion of Georgia and its prior dual invasions of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, which possessed the right to and desired independence from Moscow, but was suppressed by brute force. Furthermore, Russian leaders and state television are currently disseminating baseless falsehoods, blaming NATO, the U.S., and the EU for their own aggression, claiming that Ukrainians were preparing to attack Russians with the backing of Europe and the Anglo-Saxons. Therefore, much like the old fable where a boy does nothing but lie for amusement and cries “wolf, wolf,” the time has come for the wolf to actually arrive and bring the matter to its logical conclusion. This is especially true given that Russian anti-American hysteria, numerous hostile actions, and an overt anti-American coalition with China have repeatedly demonstrated Moscow’s true motives: aggrandizement at the expense of its neighbors.
Political Opportunity
Donald Trump and the political reality he has forged in the United States enable him, perhaps for the first time in many decades, to make such a decision, secure support, and successfully execute it. What seemed utterly impossible under Joe Biden, Barack Obama, or even George W. Bush, Donald Trump can organize in a matter of months. Following special operations in Venezuela or the war in Iran, there is no doubt that the U.S. President and the broader American system (both economic and military) are capable of highly audacious geostrategic moves. Furthermore, polling indicates overwhelming support for aiding Ukraine among American voters, while sentiments in Congress reveal robust bipartisan backing. This is to say nothing of the moral superiority of such a decision, as it is crystal clear to most people of goodwill that Russia is a more powerful aggressor that attacked a weaker victim expecting a swift victory. It is the classic story of David versus Goliath, where all sympathies lie with David.
The Toolkit
After years of warfare, it is now entirely clear where and how strikes must be delivered against the Russian Federation to inflict maximum damage. This entails completely cutting off its energy exports, imposing the strictest possible sanctions, isolating its economy and the supply chains required for weapons manufacturing, maximum disruption of its presence in international forums (from the UN to the Olympic Committee), and ensuring the delivery of long-range, high-precision weaponry to the Ukrainians. Notably, numerous nations are even willing to contribute tens of billions of dollars out of pocket for this assistance. Beyond that, it is merely a matter of time before the Russians experience a total collapse of their already barely functioning system.
A Committed Ally
Unlike numerous previous wars waged by the United States, here, a foreign military will be doing the fighting against one of America’s most overt adversaries. Currently, over one-million-armed Ukrainians have successfully halted Russian aggression and have even carried the war back to where it originated. Over the past year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have inflicted perhaps the greatest cumulative damage upon the Russian Federation in its history, continuously scaling up strikes against Russian defense plants, oil refineries, ports, and military logistics. If Ukrainians are assisted in building a genuine wartime democracy and aided with international military recruitment, it will allow them to expand their combat-ready forces by several million more personnel.
Crucially, the Ukrainian army would not even need to conquer the territories of the Russian Federation – a crushing defeat of the Russians in the Donbas and Crimea, combined with just demands for reparations, would almost certainly trigger a political catastrophe inside the Russian Federation. This would spark revolutionary events and even the disintegration of regions which, possessing oil, gas, and other natural resources, could clearly enjoy a much better standard of living independently, rather than bankrolling massive subsidized federal subjects and serving the insane military whims of Moscow. In fact, such scenarios have long ceased to be science fiction and have been pragmatically developed by specialists.
Most importantly, if we recall the eminent philosopher Thomas Hobbes, who explained the social contract and the emergence of states through man’s desire to escape a state of war of all against all, we see that the Ukrainians’ trump card is not even weaponry, but a fantastic moral superiority and righteousness in the eyes of the entire world. By attacking a weaker Ukraine, the Russians violated every conceivable rule, effectively shattering all treaties and returning themselves and the Ukrainians to a primordial state of a “right to all things”. In doing so, they opened a Pandora’s box. Following the genocidal actions in Bucha, the terror against Ukrainians in temporarily occupied territories, the erasure of entire Ukrainian cities, and years of bombarding civilian infrastructure resulting in tens of thousands of innocent casualties, Ukrainians have acquired the right to do literally anything to Russia. It is only due to their own moral constraints and Euro-Atlantic aspirations that they do not cross the boundaries of humanity.
Yet, they are the only ones in the world who can and have the right to strike Moscow and St. Petersburg, the fleet and the army, military factories and the energy grid. No one else, including the U.S., the EU, or China, can do this – but Ukraine can, does, and possesses both the legal and moral right to do so. Not since World War II have Americans possessed an ally with such moral authority, should they choose to align with it even halfway.
Interested Parties
Given Russia’s numerous direct threats to Europeans, dozens of European nations (most notably Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, and Finland) are the parties most intensely interested in its division into smaller, more stable states. The EU supports Ukraine in its existential war of survival against Russia precisely because a Ukrainian defeat would mean roughly 300 triumphant Russian brigades, possess immense combat experience and lack any substantial reason not to advance further, arriving directly on their borders. For context, the largest military force on the EU’s eastern border belongs to Poland, which possesses only about fifteen combat-ready brigades. It is a vastly superior strategic alternative to replace a rogue military machine with several dozen young democracies that are fatigued by war and a bloody tyrant, and instead wish to be prosperous and wealthy, allowing the West to once again trade and conduct business as usual.
In this war, China quietly supports the Russians, but as practitioners of securing a win-win outcome under any trajectory, the Chinese have a well-devised scenario in the event of a Russian defeat. Beyond obvious territorial gains, resources, and a range of technologies, a collapse of the RF would see Beijing attempt to consolidate the new states arising from former federal subjects around itself as new allies. Therefore, China will certainly have no intention of overextending itself for the Russians or deploying its own forces to artificially prolong the lifespan of the collapsing federation.
Similarly, none of Russia’s powerful neighbors (Japan, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and others) will come to its aid in the event of a genuine internal collapse; rather, they will gladly collect their global and regional dividends from its downfall.
No one knows exactly how long this window of opportunity and this extraordinary constellation of factors and capabilities will endure. But one thing is absolutely certain: if Donald Trump successfully capitalizes on this situation, he will not only secure his place in history as the sole leader who permanently dismantled one of the most constant anti-American forces, but he will also have a real opportunity to forge dozens of independent nations on its ruins. These new states, holding perhaps the world’s largest resource reserves, will deeply require powerful global patrons at their inception. This would mark the beginning of an entirely new planetary order, possessing every potential to either radically reconstruct the United Nations or replace it with something far more effective at guaranteeing global peace and prosperity.
