US Involvement in the Post-October 7 Middle East
In the years preceding the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, two alternative strategic trajectories seemed to shape the discourse on US involvement in the Middle East: gradual disengagement or intensified great-power competition. By late 2025, following two years of war, a third strategic option has reemerged: American dominance. The US Options Before the October […]
Can Europe Go It Alone?
Under the Trump administration, which entered office in January 2025, the United States has spurned, or at least attenuated, international democracy promotion, close Euro-Atlantic coordination and direct material support for Ukraine. As a result, there is increasing discussion about Europe’s new role not only in defending Ukraine, but also in dealing with autocracies and other […]
America’s Options in Afghanistan
Four years have passed since the United States withdrew in chaos from Afghanistan, abandoning important projects, leaving behind billions of dollars of equipment and handing the Taliban many other assets in that country. The Taliban still rule Afghanistan. They face a mountain of unresolved problems yet are ready to employ as much force as necessary […]
The German – Polish Relationship, Soft Bigotry and Long Grievances
“We must all turn our backs upon the horrors of the past and look to the future.”Winston Churchill, September 19, 1946, Zurich Germany and Poland are European Union and NATO members, neighbors committed to the fight against an expansionist Russia with a combined massive economic might. They should be the closest of natural allies, but […]
Russia’s Return to Syria
On July 31, Syrian Foreign Minister Asa’ad al-Shaibani met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the same city where deposed President Bashar al-Asad now lives in exile. Shaibani was carrying an unexpected request. According to sources familiar with the meeting, Damascus asked Russia to resume military police patrols along Syria’s southern border with Israel. […]
Russia and the West: The Economic Dimension
Perfect Storm: Russia’s Failed Economic Opening, the Hurricane of War and Sanctions, and the Uncertain Future, by Thane Gustafson, Oxford University Press, 2025 In the final decade of the last century, the end of communism in Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union left three developments in their wake. Together the three promised to […]
The Lesson of Russian History
The German military historian Carl von Clausewitz, writing about the Napoleonic Wars, once commented on military aggressions more generally: “The conqueror is always peace-loving; he would much prefer to march into our state calmly.” After the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and covertly invaded the Donets Basin (Donbas) of […]
America’s Latin America Problem
Twenty years of US neglect have created space for adversaries to build permanent footholds in the Western Hemisphere. Iran and other adversaries are quietly building an operational network in America’s backyard, one that sanctions alone cannot dismantle. The Venezuela Nexus Recent testimony from Hugo “Pollo” Carvajal, Venezuela’s former intelligence chief, reveals the depth of Iran-Venezuela […]
Reconciliation Bills and the Defense Budget
Both during his presidential campaign and since taking office, President Donald Trump has repeatedly echoed Ronald Reagan’s famous phrase “peace through strength,” while emphasizing the major emerging long-term threat from the People’s Republic of China. Despite Trump’s pronouncements, however, his fiscal year 2026 budget falls short of the defense spending levels that the Biden administration […]
Europe Faces a Threat Bigger Than Russia: Its Own Balkanization
Bridge construction in the Western Balkans may be a microcosm of Europe’s fragmented, post-American future. During the Kosovo War of 1998-1999, the main bridge over the river Ibar in the ethnically divided town of Mitrovica was an important focal point. “On one side, sitting in chairs outside the Dolce Vita bar and listening to Italian music, are […]
