Iran

Just three weeks ago, thousands of Hizbullah fighters, commanders, and activists were killed or injured in Israeli “pager” attacks. Next the terrorist organization’s top leaders, including Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah, were eliminated in Israeli airstrikes. Then, after Israeli warplanes bombarded Hizbullah’s stronghold in Beirut and bases in southern Lebanon, Israel invaded with two divisions, aiming […]

Four decades in the undeclared conflict between Israel and Iran, the storm of war looms even larger over the Middle East, threatening to engulf its citizens in an unprecedented turmoil. If the confrontation between Israel and Iran escalates, the mediator most trusted by both sides may not hail from Beijing, Moscow, or Washington, but from […]

In July 2015, much of the world exhaled with the announcement that a nuclear deal had been struck among the United States, its partners, and Iran. Although the terms of the deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) were — and remain — contentious, for many, the deal denied Iran the ability […]

Israel faces a strategic dilemma regarding prioritization of the multiple arenas of attacks it faces across the region: Can it continue to prioritize Gaza while maintaining the current low tempo of operations in Lebanon and preparing for responses from Iran?  In Gaza, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has made significant progress since the Hamas invasion […]

On July 18, 1994, a car bomb exploded in front of the Buenos Aires Jewish community center (known as AMIA) leaving 85 persons dead and over 300 wounded. Until the October 7 Hamas attack, this was the largest terrorist killing of Jews since the Holocaust. On the 30th anniversary of this attack, the Tehran Times, […]

The world is on fire with two major wars in Europe and the Middle East and Iran has a malign involvement in both. As a party to the Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis it supports Russia in its aggression against Ukraine. Iran has fueled conflict through its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, threatening America’s close ally, Israel, […]

Iran’s new president, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, entered office in July with low expectations and no voter mandate, having the narrowest margin of victory for any president since the 1979 Revolution. Had it not been for a sizable Azeri ethnic turnout supporting him in three of Iran’s 31 provinces, the election would have been far closer […]

For Japan, a good relationship with Iran was for decades essential for its economic prosperity. Japan had a policy of “agreeing to disagree” with the US over Iran. Today, that policy has started to change.   A Relationship Based on Japan’s Quest for Energy Security  Overviews of Japan and Iran note that trade and cultural ties […]

When Iran’s President Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May, President Putin expressed condolences and called Raisi a “very reliable partner.” Russian Muslims offered prayers for Raisi at Moscow’s main mosque, and Russian state television provided continuous updates on the funeral arrangements from Iran. Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who also perished in […]

Iran may be about to lose its ally Hamas, which Israel seeks to defeat. But is it also about to gain a new partner, Sudan, on the western side of the Red Sea?  Here we go again in Sudan. For decades the country experienced civil war and famine, triggered by religious conflicts and struggles for power […]

On February 1, 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini debarked at Mehrabad airport in Tehran, he was asked what form of government he envisioned for post-Shah Iran. He said, “an Islamic Republic, not one word more or one word less.” Today, as Iran draws closer to the eventual passing of Khomeini’s successor, it is worth focusing on […]

In one of his last interviews on German television, before passing at the age of 100, Henry Kissinger opined that the slaughter of Israelis by Hamas on October 7 could end up bringing the rest of the Arab world into the fighting. Based on recent events, his remarks were prophetic. Unless cooler heads prevail, we […]

In the face of the dramatic large-scale Iranian assault on Israel April 14, Israel has a fateful choice, usually presented as whether or not to conduct a retaliatory attack on Iran. But the real choice is how Israel, as a state with its existence at stake, can exploit the current military and diplomatic situation to […]

The Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel in the early morning hours of April 14 serves as a reminder of Tehran’s dangerous role in Middle Eastern affairs. Imagine the impunity with which Iran might act if it felt emboldened by possession of a nuclear umbrella or an ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons. The […]

Iran’s attack on Israel, with more than 170 drones and 120 ballistic missiles, was the largest that Tehran has ever launched against the Hebrew state.  Previously, Iran used proxy forces, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthi rebels in Yemen, to rain down rockets on Israeli homes and ships. Now, Iran is attacking directly and striking at well […]

The war launched by Hamas on October 7, 2023 caught Israel and its defense establishment by surprise, but the same cannot be said of the missile attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Houthi rebel regime in Yemen.  Ever since the Houthis took control of Yemen’s capital San’a in 2014, Israeli analysts have warned that […]

Cyberspace has become a major domain for organized crime as well as for statecraft in the twenty-first century. Israel has become a top global cyber power. But cyber offense is no silver bullet.  What Is a Cyber-Attack?  A senior JPMorgan executive made headlines at the recent Davos gathering: “people are trying to hack into JPMorgan […]

Self-deterrence is a defense concept that a state may be restrained from using its military power not by the fear of a counter strike but rather owing to reputational concerns arising from moral, legal or other considerations. This concept may partly explain US reluctance to escalate the current level of military conflict with Iran, though […]

In the weeks since the Hamas massacre on October 7, pundits have debated whether or not Iran helped Hamas develop the plan for the terrorist assault and if Iran had foreknowledge of the attack. Citing a Hamas source, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran helped plot the attack and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard […]

Iran seeks to derail the US regional effort based on Saudi-Israeli normalization

A central element of the new film Oppenheimer is time. The time needed to design and construct the ultimate weapon is marked through the steady accumulation of marbles in a fishbowl and a wine glass, which represent the growing stockpiles of uranium and plutonium that ultimately fueled the devices dropped seventy-eight years ago on Hiroshima […]

Generals, the old adage goes, are prone to fighting the last war.  Political leaders and the people they represent typically prefer to avoid armed conflict. They have heeded what they have believed to be the lessons of the most recent conflict in which they have been engaged, seeking, in effect, to avoid the last war. […]

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, in February 2021, boldly summarized President Joe Biden’s strategy as a “foreign policy for the middle class,” a concept further articulated in a speech in April 2023. This is both a departure and a continuation of traditional US strategic thinking. In earlier administrations, foreign policy emerged from the concerns of […]

Since 2013  – and more intensely since 2017 – Israel has been conducting an active military and intelligence campaign against Iran’s presence in Syria, in addition to the ongoing operations against Iran’s nuclear effort. Doubts have been raised as to the long-term ability of this strategy to prevent Iran from sustaining and extending its grip […]

Apart from the Syrian people themselves, Israel comes out of the 12 years of civil war in Syria as the biggest loser. The survival of the Assad regime, closely allied with Iran, amounts to nothing short of an Israeli strategic failure.  Assad’s survival turns Iran into Israel’s next-door neighbor, exercising growing influence on the rebuilding of Syria’s armed forces. It allows for land corridors through Iraq and (via […]

Twenty years ago, on 17 March 2003, Mohammed ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reported to his board that Iran was in breach of its Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations – which require a signatory to use all nuclear technology in the country exclusively for peaceful purposes and to follow a policy […]

If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that a nuclear Iran is Israel’s greatest threat, then why is his government focused instead on passing domestic judicial reform legislation as its top priority? This question, posed by a former head of the Mossad’s Iran department, appeared in the headlines of Israel’s daily Yedioth Ahronoth on March 3. […]

In July 2022, against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin embarked on a notable foreign trip. Amid mounting international censure and growing hostility from the outside world, Putin traveled to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials and formally usher in a new phase in the long-running strategic partnership between […]

The State of Israel is not required by law to adopt a national security strategy. But the need for such a document has been often raised, and several efforts have been made to write one. In October 1953, Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion presented a long disquisition on Israel’s security needs to the Cabinet, which he […]

The Islamic Republic of Iran, now 43 years old, has proven itself to be remarkably resilient in weathering both geopolitical turbulence and domestic hardships. In doing so, it has defied the predictions of numerous scholars and pundits.  This trend could very well continue. Iran’s clerical elite has turned out to be extremely adept at changing […]

Why did the IDF launch an attack on the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, knowing full well that this would lead to rocket attacks and counterstrikes?

Dilemmas, Threats, and Opportunities

A Letter From the Publisher

A More Robust Role is required in Countering Iran’s Ambitions

Iran’s repeated excursions to Africa require far closer scrutiny.

There is little prospect of an Israeli–Syrian peace deal. Earlier attempts by Israeli leaders to come to terms with Syria had met with stiff opposition in the country.

The total number of Jews still living in Iran is remarkable, considering Iran’s more hostile Shiite jurisprudence, its history of murderous pogroms, its recent bouts of official Holocaust-denial antisemitism, and incessant anti-Israel sloganeering.

Iran's President Raisi appears not be interested in a deal and pressure must therefore be maintained. But the US should not allow itself to become enmeshed in an Israeli military action that likely would not totally destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity but would destabilize the region.

“In the midst of death, we are in life.” With stoic resolve, the words of that medieval prayer point toward a path of hope in times of trial.

Let us all labor to stop the bomb before it blows up in our faces

Israel is a regional power. The time has come for it to act accordingly

A letter from the publisher: Biden must consider the plight of the Iranian people in negotiations with the regime

Literature review: Shimon Shiffer's "Warning Lights, Secret Talks with Amos Gilead"

After all too many warnings of imminent breakout toward nuclear weapons, is it finally for real now?

Five lessons to be learned from decades of ineffectual policies, and a cornered cat

Force as a policy choice, necessary for liberal political leaders as it is for more conservative ones

How the Sunni–Shiite divide became a revolutionary mission, affecting the entire Middle East

The Biden administration seems to be on the wrong track. Here's what needs to change

America has returned to its role as a major energy producer and exporter, affecting much more than the global market

Biden is the last of his generation of Democrats. What does it say for the present—and future—of US–Israel ties?

Iran’s primary strategic objective is to drive the US from the region

America’s adversaries are not the only ones to respond to Washington’s changing regional priorities